Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | HCU -105 SFA -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -1.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.0 (+17.0) | 133.4 (-5.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -0.4 (+15.6) | 132.0 (-4.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.1 (+16.1) | 133.0 (-5.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -0.4 (+15.6) | 131.7 (-3.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SFA 77 – 56 HCU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | SFA 85 – 67 HCU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | HCU 83 – 73 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#272) | -4.6 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#292) | -0.93 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#274) | -1.04 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#274) | 0.473 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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