Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -1050 HCU +675 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +18 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -17.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -13.4 (+4.6) | 134.5 (+17.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -15.0 (+3.0) | 133.2 (+18.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -15.9 (+2.1) | 133.6 (+18.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -15.9 (+2.1) | 133.7 (+18.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SFA 77 – 56 HCU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | HCU 72 – 56 SFA |
| Jan 7, 2025 | HCU 83 – 73 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 8-14 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 12-4 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#86) | -6.8 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#88) | -2.10 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#83) | -2.43 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#105) | 0.406 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.