Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -900 UND +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +33 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -13.9 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -14.1 (+18.9) | 151.1 (+7.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -13.5 (+19.5) | 151.7 (+7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -12.8 (+20.2) | 151.0 (+8.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -13.6 (+19.4) | 152.2 (+6.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | NDSU 70 – 62 UND |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NDSU 83 – 66 UND |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UND 79 – 77 NDSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NDSU 87 – 82 UND |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NDSU 73 – 68 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#122) | -7.9 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#111) | -0.88 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#120) | -1.41 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#95) | 0.482 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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