Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -138 UND +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -3.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -1.5 (+3.5) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -2.3 (+2.7) | 144.5 (-3.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -2.3 (+2.7) | 145.2 (-4.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -2.1 (+2.9) | 146.4 (-5.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | NDSU 70 – 62 UND |
| Feb 28, 2026 | NDSU 96 – 63 UND |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NDSU 83 – 66 UND |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UND 79 – 77 NDSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NDSU 87 – 82 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#235) | -4.1 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#231) | -0.38 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#247) | -0.55 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#200) | 0.473 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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