Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO -285 TNTC +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +16 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -8.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -7.2 (+8.8) | 138.7 (+23.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -7.3 (+8.7) | 138.3 (+23.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -7.1 (+8.9) | 135.6 (+26.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -6.6 (+9.4) | 135.5 (+26.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNTC 85 – 74 SEMO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SEMO 83 – 69 TNTC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 70 TNTC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SEMO 88 – 69 TNTC |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 59 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#228) | -9.7 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#226) | -1.53 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#236) | -1.97 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#167) | 0.453 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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