Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TNTC -275 SEMO +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -9.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -7.6 (+3.4) | 146.0 (-17.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -6.1 (+4.9) | 144.4 (-15.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -7.5 (+3.5) | 142.8 (-13.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -7.1 (+3.9) | 143.2 (-14.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SEMO 89 – 73 TNTC |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNTC 85 – 74 SEMO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SEMO 83 – 69 TNTC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 70 TNTC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SEMO 88 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#317) | -15.2 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#321) | -2.66 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#316) | -3.74 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#305) | 0.382 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 5.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 17.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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