Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
Ohio Valley Conference · Hooper Eblen Center · December 19, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread SEMO -2.5 Home covered
O/U 155.5 Over
Money TNTC +124 / SEMO -148
Model Predictions
Spread Total TNTC win
Actual TNTC +11 159 Won
Massey TNTC -3.8 (+7.2)
Massey Totals 159.3 (-0.3)
Bradley-Terry 82%
Weighted B-T 87%
Efficiency Plus ML TNTC -1.7 (+9.3) 152.1 (+6.9) 56%
Baseline Tuned ML TNTC -2.7 (+8.3) 150.2 (+8.8) 66%
Baseline ML TNTC -3.2 (+7.8) 151.7 (+7.3) 66%
Baseline Plus ML TNTC -2.2 (+8.8) 152.2 (+6.8) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2026 SEMO 8973 TNTC
Feb 15, 2025 SEMO 8369 TNTC
Jan 17, 2025 SEMO 7770 TNTC
Feb 9, 2024 SEMO 8869 TNTC
Jan 13, 2024 TNTC 7059 SEMO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TNTC SEMO
Overall 13-18 20-13
Conference 8-12 14-6
Home 8-6 10-5
Away 5-12 8-7
Neutral 0-0 2-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 70.2 73.2
Avg Pts Against 75.6 72.3
Massey -3.0 (#211) -2.4 (#201)
Bradley-Terry -0.21 (#196) -0.89 (#250)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.10 (#173) -1.12 (#238)
RPI 0.490 (#190) 0.464 (#239)
Shooting & Four Factors TNTC SEMO
FG% 45.2% 44.5%
3PT% 31.3% 27.9%
REB / G 34.2 32.2
OREB / G 8.9 10.5
AST / TO 0.86 0.87
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.7% 49.5%
TOV% 19.7% 17.4%
ORB% 25.4% 28.4%
FT Rate 22.0% 20.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.8% 58.1%
Opp TOV% 16.4% 20.2%
DRB% 69.8% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 26.4% 39.0%

Game Analysis

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