Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC +124 SEMO -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -3.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -2.2 (+8.8) | 152.2 (+6.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -1.7 (+9.3) | 152.1 (+6.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -2.7 (+8.3) | 150.2 (+8.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -3.2 (+7.8) | 151.7 (+7.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SEMO 89 – 73 TNTC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SEMO 83 – 69 TNTC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 70 TNTC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SEMO 88 – 69 TNTC |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 59 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#211) | -2.4 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#196) | -0.89 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#173) | -1.12 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#190) | 0.464 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 39.0% |
Game Analysis
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