I'm the all night drug prowling wolf who looks so sick in sun / I'm the white man in the Palais "White Man in Hammersmith Palais" - The Clash
Big Ten Conference · State Farm Center · February 28, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MICH -1.5 Away covered
O/U 159.5 Under
Money ILL +110 / MICH -130
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILL win
Actual MICH +14 154 Lost
Massey MICH -2.8 (-11.2)
Massey Totals 162.0 (-8.0)
Bradley-Terry 32%
Weighted B-T 28%
Efficiency Plus ML ILL -1.7 (-15.7) 163.4 (-9.4) 60%
Baseline Tuned ML MICH -0.2 (-13.8) 162.2 (-8.2) 47%
Baseline ML ILL -0.7 (-14.7) 160.4 (-6.4) 44%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -0.9 (-14.9) 158.9 (-4.9) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 2, 2025 ILL 9373 MICH
Feb 14, 2024 ILL 9768 MICH
Jan 19, 2024 ILL 8873 MICH
Mar 3, 2023 ILL 9187 MICH
Feb 27, 2022 ILL 9385 MICH

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILL MICH
Overall 28-9 37-3
Conference 15-5 19-1
Home 14-3 14-1
Away 8-2 11-0
Neutral 6-4 12-2
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 W6
Avg Pts For 83.2 87.3
Avg Pts Against 68.8 69.5
Massey 24.0 (#5) 29.8 (#1)
Bradley-Terry 3.55 (#13) 4.84 (#3)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.84 (#7) 6.38 (#2)
RPI 0.636 (#11) 0.681 (#1)
Shooting & Four Factors ILL MICH
FG% 46.5% 51.0%
3PT% 35.7% 36.0%
REB / G 41.2 40.9
OREB / G 13.4 11.4
AST / TO 1.64 1.60
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.7% 58.7%
TOV% 13.5% 16.6%
ORB% 39.5% 36.3%
FT Rate 26.9% 28.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.3% 43.9%
Opp TOV% 11.6% 16.4%
DRB% 73.4% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 14.0% 19.9%

Game Analysis

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