Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | ILL +110 MICH -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +14 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -2.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.9 (-14.9) | 158.9 (-4.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -1.7 (-15.7) | 163.4 (-9.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -0.2 (-13.8) | 162.2 (-8.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -0.7 (-14.7) | 160.4 (-6.4) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILL 93 – 73 MICH |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILL 97 – 68 MICH |
| Jan 19, 2024 | ILL 88 – 73 MICH |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ILL 91 – 87 MICH |
| Feb 27, 2022 | ILL 93 – 85 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 19-1 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 12-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 87.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 24.0 (#5) | 29.8 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#13) | 4.84 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.84 (#7) | 6.38 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#11) | 0.681 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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