Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +8 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -1.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+36.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -1.5 (-9.5) | 143.7 (+34.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.3 (-8.3) | 142.1 (+35.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -1.1 (-9.1) | 144.2 (+33.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -1.1 (-9.1) | 145.8 (+32.2) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MICH 84 – 70 ILL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILL 93 – 73 MICH |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILL 97 – 68 MICH |
| Jan 19, 2024 | ILL 88 – 73 MICH |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ILL 91 – 87 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#29) | 15.4 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#42) | 2.57 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#40) | 3.11 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#37) | 0.595 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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