Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -155 ILL +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +20 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -2.2 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -2.9 (-22.9) | 157.4 (+8.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.7 (-20.7) | 161.5 (+4.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -2.9 (-22.9) | 158.7 (+7.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -3.0 (-23.0) | 156.3 (+9.7) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MICH 84 – 70 ILL |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILL 97 – 68 MICH |
| Jan 19, 2024 | ILL 88 – 73 MICH |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ILL 91 – 87 MICH |
| Feb 27, 2022 | ILL 93 – 85 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#20) | 18.1 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#14) | 2.40 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#11) | 3.24 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#8) | 0.575 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 42.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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