Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MICH +120 ILL -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +15 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -5.2 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.2 (-9.8) | 151.2 (+9.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.0 (-10.0) | 151.1 (+9.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -3.9 (-11.1) | 151.9 (+9.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.2 (-9.8) | 153.0 (+8.0) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MICH 84 – 70 ILL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILL 93 – 73 MICH |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILL 97 – 68 MICH |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ILL 91 – 87 MICH |
| Feb 27, 2022 | ILL 93 – 85 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 14-6 |
| Home | 5-10 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L9 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#76) | 16.2 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#133) | 2.14 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#104) | 2.90 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#97) | 0.605 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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