Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -200 MICH +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +4 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -6.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+32.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -4.6 (-0.6) | 145.2 (+32.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.4 (-1.4) | 143.0 (+35.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.3 (-1.3) | 144.4 (+33.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.2 (-1.2) | 144.0 (+34.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MICH 84 – 70 ILL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILL 93 – 73 MICH |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILL 97 – 68 MICH |
| Jan 19, 2024 | ILL 88 – 73 MICH |
| Feb 27, 2022 | ILL 93 – 85 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#25) | 9.8 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#40) | 1.57 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#41) | 2.36 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#70) | 0.555 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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