Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -1600 MICH +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +29 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -14.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -13.3 (+15.7) | 158.5 (+6.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -12.3 (+16.7) | 158.2 (+6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -12.2 (+16.8) | 157.0 (+8.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -11.8 (+17.2) | 156.4 (+8.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MICH 84 – 70 ILL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILL 93 – 73 MICH |
| Jan 19, 2024 | ILL 88 – 73 MICH |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ILL 91 – 87 MICH |
| Feb 27, 2022 | ILL 93 – 85 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#13) | 5.3 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#20) | 0.36 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#18) | 0.90 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#20) | 0.524 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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