Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | LIU -550 FDU +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +14 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -12.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -10.5 (+3.5) | 135.1 (-1.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -9.7 (+4.3) | 135.1 (-1.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -10.8 (+3.2) | 138.5 (-4.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -10.6 (+3.4) | 138.4 (-4.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LIU 66 – 59 FDU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LIU 74 – 55 FDU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | LIU 62 – 58 FDU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | FDU 84 – 82 LIU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | FDU 82 – 75 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-9 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#209) | -12.0 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#189) | -2.34 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#198) | -2.95 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#138) | 0.413 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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