Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -185 CHSO +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHSO +17 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -4.1 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -4.7 (-21.7) | 148.1 (+18.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -3.1 (-20.1) | 144.5 (+22.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -3.0 (-20.0) | 144.5 (+22.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -4.7 (-21.7) | 146.9 (+20.1) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 83 UNCA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNCA 80 – 60 CHSO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCA 75 – 72 CHSO |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCA 69 – 61 CHSO |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UNCA 60 – 55 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#230) | -5.1 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#243) | -1.40 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#233) | -1.78 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#191) | 0.437 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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