Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -260 CHSO +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -5.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -4.7 (+15.3) | 147.3 (-7.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -5.2 (+14.8) | 145.8 (-5.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -5.6 (+14.4) | 145.4 (-5.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -4.7 (+15.3) | 146.3 (-6.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CHSO 92 – 75 UNCA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 83 UNCA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCA 75 – 72 CHSO |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCA 69 – 61 CHSO |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UNCA 60 – 55 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#213) | -8.2 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#141) | -1.23 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#152) | -1.67 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#90) | 0.448 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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