Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -800 CHSO +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -9.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -10.0 (-7.0) | 153.3 (-6.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -9.0 (-6.0) | 152.1 (-5.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -8.7 (-5.7) | 152.1 (-5.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -8.1 (-5.1) | 154.9 (-7.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CHSO 92 – 75 UNCA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 83 UNCA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNCA 80 – 60 CHSO |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCA 69 – 61 CHSO |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UNCA 60 – 55 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#180) | -7.4 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#113) | -0.98 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#118) | -1.35 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#62) | 0.454 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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