Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -1000 CHSO +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +5 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -10.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -9.6 (-4.6) | 140.6 (-25.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -9.0 (-4.0) | 139.9 (-24.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -9.2 (-4.2) | 137.0 (-22.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -8.8 (-3.8) | 138.3 (-23.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CHSO 92 – 75 UNCA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 83 UNCA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNCA 80 – 60 CHSO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCA 75 – 72 CHSO |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCA 69 – 61 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#160) | -10.1 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#131) | -1.30 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#137) | -1.82 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#92) | 0.451 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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