Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -1800 BC +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +22 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -16.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -15.1 (+6.9) | 145.4 (-15.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -12.6 (+9.4) | 143.8 (-13.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -14.3 (+7.7) | 142.0 (-12.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -14.3 (+7.7) | 143.8 (-13.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MIA 74 – 68 BC |
| Jan 1, 2025 | BC 78 – 68 MIA |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BC 81 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BC 67 – 57 MIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | BC 85 – 77 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#32) | 1.5 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#28) | -0.28 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#28) | -0.17 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#52) | 0.477 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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