Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | BC -115 MIA -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | BC -0.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -2.1 (+5.9) | 147.9 (+14.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -0.4 (+7.6) | 145.3 (+16.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -2.4 (+5.6) | 146.2 (+15.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -2.1 (+5.9) | 145.9 (+16.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIA 76 – 54 BC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | MIA 74 – 68 BC |
| Jan 1, 2025 | BC 78 – 68 MIA |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BC 81 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BC 67 – 57 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#90) | 9.1 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#95) | 1.37 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#89) | 1.74 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#101) | 0.541 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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