Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | BC +310 MIA -395 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -9.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -7.4 (+1.4) | 138.1 (+3.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -7.6 (+1.6) | 138.8 (+3.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -7.6 (+1.6) | 135.8 (+6.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -7.2 (+1.2) | 136.5 (+5.5) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIA 76 – 54 BC |
| Jan 1, 2025 | BC 78 – 68 MIA |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BC 81 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BC 67 – 57 MIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | BC 85 – 77 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#140) | 14.8 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#200) | 2.14 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#163) | 3.06 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#203) | 0.559 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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