Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | BC +110 MIA -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -2.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -0.1 (+10.1) | 146.8 (-0.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -0.4 (+9.6) | 144.7 (+1.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -0.1 (+9.9) | 148.1 (-2.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -0.3 (+10.3) | 148.8 (-2.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIA 76 – 54 BC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | MIA 74 – 68 BC |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BC 81 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BC 67 – 57 MIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | BC 85 – 77 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 3-17 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-10 |
| Away | 0-10 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#223) | 3.5 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#149) | -1.43 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#168) | -1.41 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#157) | 0.444 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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