Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -250 BC +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +10 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -5.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -4.7 (-14.7) | 152.2 (-28.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -5.4 (-15.4) | 147.2 (-23.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -5.2 (-15.2) | 150.6 (-26.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -4.7 (-14.7) | 151.6 (-27.6) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIA 76 – 54 BC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | MIA 74 – 68 BC |
| Jan 1, 2025 | BC 78 – 68 MIA |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BC 81 – 65 MIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | BC 85 – 77 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#73) | 5.7 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#92) | 0.95 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#90) | 1.25 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#144) | 0.530 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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