Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | BC +125 MIA -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -1.4 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -1.2 (+17.2) | 144.5 (+1.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -1.4 (+17.4) | 141.6 (+4.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -0.9 (+16.9) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -0.7 (+16.7) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIA 76 – 54 BC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | MIA 74 – 68 BC |
| Jan 1, 2025 | BC 78 – 68 MIA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BC 67 – 57 MIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | BC 85 – 77 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#91) | 7.6 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#92) | 0.91 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#90) | 1.27 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#99) | 0.504 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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