Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | CLEM +120 LOU -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLEM +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -4.2 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -0.9 (+5.9) | 146.6 (+8.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -2.5 (+7.5) | 145.3 (+9.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -2.0 (+7.0) | 146.7 (+8.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -1.4 (+6.4) | 144.1 (+10.9) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2025 | LOU 76 – 73 CLEM |
| Jan 8, 2025 | LOU 74 – 64 CLEM |
| Jan 31, 2024 | CLEM 70 – 64 LOU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | LOU 83 – 73 CLEM |
| Jan 12, 2023 | CLEM 83 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLEM | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#40) | 21.3 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#36) | 2.77 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#44) | 3.65 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#41) | 0.600 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLEM | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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