Betting Lines
| Spread | CLEM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +125 CLEM -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -0.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLEM -0.2 (+3.2) | 135.0 (+14.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLEM -1.6 (+4.6) | 136.5 (+12.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -0.1 (+2.9) | 135.6 (+13.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -0.1 (+2.9) | 133.6 (+15.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CLEM 80 – 75 LOU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | LOU 74 – 64 CLEM |
| Jan 31, 2024 | CLEM 70 – 64 LOU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | LOU 83 – 73 CLEM |
| Jan 12, 2023 | CLEM 83 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-2 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#23) | 15.9 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#15) | 3.05 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#18) | 3.73 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#16) | 0.622 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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