Betting Lines
| Spread | CLEM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +500 CLEM -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | CLEM -11.8 (+21.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLEM -12.1 (+22.1) | 144.0 (+12.0) | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLEM -12.3 (+22.3) | 141.7 (+14.3) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLEM -11.8 (+21.8) | 143.5 (+12.5) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLEM -11.5 (+21.5) | 144.9 (+11.1) | 18% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CLEM 80 – 75 LOU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | LOU 76 – 73 CLEM |
| Jan 8, 2025 | LOU 74 – 64 CLEM |
| Jan 31, 2024 | CLEM 70 – 64 LOU |
| Jan 12, 2023 | CLEM 83 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 14-6 |
| Home | 4-13 | 15-2 |
| Away | 0-11 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#302) | 7.5 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#340) | 1.69 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#296) | 1.92 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#319) | 0.560 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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