Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -165 CLEM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -4.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -4.5 (+5.5) | 144.9 (-6.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -2.3 (+7.7) | 143.8 (-5.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -5.7 (+4.3) | 143.3 (-5.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -5.2 (+4.8) | 145.2 (-7.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CLEM 80 – 75 LOU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | LOU 76 – 73 CLEM |
| Jan 31, 2024 | CLEM 70 – 64 LOU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | LOU 83 – 73 CLEM |
| Jan 12, 2023 | CLEM 83 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-2 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#44) | 12.3 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#25) | 2.44 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.85 (#26) | 3.08 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#21) | 0.619 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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