And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Mountain West Conference · The Pit · February 28, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -1.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money UNM -130 / SDSU +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNM win
Actual UNM +5 157 Won
Massey UNM -3.0 (+2.0)
Massey Totals 150.6 (+6.4)
Bradley-Terry 64%
Weighted B-T 63%
Efficiency Plus ML UNM -4.8 (+0.2) 148.7 (+8.3) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -4.1 (+0.9) 146.5 (+10.5) 68%
Baseline ML UNM -3.9 (+1.1) 147.3 (+9.7) 72%
Baseline Plus ML UNM -4.0 (+1.0) 148.3 (+8.7) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 14, 2026 SDSU 6462 UNM
Jan 18, 2026 SDSU 8379 UNM
Feb 26, 2025 SDSU 7365 UNM
Jan 11, 2025 UNM 6248 SDSU
Mar 16, 2024 UNM 6861 SDSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNM SDSU
Overall 26-11 22-11
Conference 13-7 14-6
Home 17-3 14-2
Away 7-5 5-5
Neutral 2-3 3-4
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.8 76.8
Avg Pts Against 71.6 71.3
Massey 12.1 (#44) 12.1 (#45)
Bradley-Terry 1.96 (#50) 1.89 (#53)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.54 (#50) 2.61 (#46)
RPI 0.584 (#44) 0.581 (#48)
Shooting & Four Factors UNM SDSU
FG% 46.3% 46.9%
3PT% 36.2% 35.6%
REB / G 35.7 34.7
OREB / G 10.0 9.9
AST / TO 1.30 1.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.0% 52.8%
TOV% 15.6% 17.5%
ORB% 28.9% 30.3%
FT Rate 26.4% 28.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.6% 47.8%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 21.2%
DRB% 72.1% 69.2%
Opp FT Rate 23.8% 28.1%

Game Analysis

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