Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -130 SDSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -3.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -4.0 (+1.0) | 148.3 (+8.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -4.8 (+0.2) | 148.7 (+8.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -4.1 (+0.9) | 146.5 (+10.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -3.9 (+1.1) | 147.3 (+9.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SDSU 64 – 62 UNM |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SDSU 83 – 79 UNM |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SDSU 73 – 65 UNM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNM 62 – 48 SDSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 68 – 61 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#44) | 12.1 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#50) | 1.89 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#50) | 2.61 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#44) | 0.581 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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