Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -138 UNM +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +7 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -0.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -0.5 (-6.5) | 145.8 (-16.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.3 (-7.3) | 145.0 (-16.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -0.4 (-6.6) | 144.2 (-15.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -0.3 (-6.7) | 143.0 (-14.0) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SDSU 64 – 62 UNM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UNM 81 – 76 SDSU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SDSU 83 – 79 UNM |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SDSU 73 – 65 UNM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNM 62 – 48 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#24) | 14.1 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#18) | 2.13 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#16) | 2.58 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#9) | 0.595 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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