This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
Mountain West Conference · The Pit · January 11, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -3.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money UNM -170 / SDSU +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNM win
Actual UNM +14 110 Won
Massey SDSU -0.2 (+14.2)
Massey Totals 148.7 (-38.7)
Bradley-Terry 54%
Weighted B-T 55%
Efficiency Plus ML UNM -0.9 (+13.1) 143.2 (-33.2) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -0.9 (+13.1) 141.8 (-31.8) 54%
Baseline ML UNM -1.6 (+12.4) 142.6 (-32.6) 58%
Baseline Plus ML UNM -1.8 (+12.2) 144.6 (-34.6) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 14, 2026 SDSU 6462 UNM
Feb 28, 2026 UNM 8176 SDSU
Jan 18, 2026 SDSU 8379 UNM
Feb 26, 2025 SDSU 7365 UNM
Mar 16, 2024 UNM 6861 SDSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNM SDSU
Overall 27-8 21-10
Conference 17-3 14-6
Home 15-1 12-3
Away 7-4 6-4
Neutral 5-3 3-3
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 79.3 69.8
Avg Pts Against 70.6 65.2
Massey 9.4 (#62) 13.6 (#36)
Bradley-Terry 2.10 (#49) 2.68 (#27)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.84 (#45) 3.47 (#30)
RPI 0.584 (#47) 0.623 (#27)
Shooting & Four Factors UNM SDSU
FG% 45.2% 43.6%
3PT% 34.4% 34.1%
REB / G 39.5 38.2
OREB / G 12.7 11.8
AST / TO 1.29 1.08
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 49.7%
TOV% 16.1% 16.7%
ORB% 32.0% 33.6%
FT Rate 27.5% 20.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 42.6%
Opp TOV% 20.8% 19.5%
DRB% 71.8% 69.7%
Opp FT Rate 24.2% 26.3%

Game Analysis

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