Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -170 SDSU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +14 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -0.2 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-38.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -1.8 (+12.2) | 144.6 (-34.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -0.9 (+13.1) | 143.2 (-33.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -0.9 (+13.1) | 141.8 (-31.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -1.6 (+12.4) | 142.6 (-32.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SDSU 64 – 62 UNM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UNM 81 – 76 SDSU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SDSU 83 – 79 UNM |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SDSU 73 – 65 UNM |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 68 – 61 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#62) | 13.6 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#49) | 2.68 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#45) | 3.47 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#47) | 0.623 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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