Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -155 UNM +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -0.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -0.1 (+1.9) | 149.2 (-23.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -0.2 (+2.2) | 148.2 (-22.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -0.1 (+2.1) | 148.4 (-22.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -0.1 (+1.9) | 150.0 (-24.0) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UNM 81 – 76 SDSU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SDSU 83 – 79 UNM |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SDSU 73 – 65 UNM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNM 62 – 48 SDSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 68 – 61 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 17-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#50) | 11.6 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#53) | 1.83 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#52) | 2.34 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#41) | 0.572 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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