Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
San Diego State Aztecs
64 62
FINAL Neutral Conference Mountain West
New Mexico Lobos
Mountain West Conference · Thomas & Mack Center (Neutral) · March 14, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -2.5 Away covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money SDSU -155 / UNM +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +2 126 Won
Massey UNM -0.1 (+2.1)
Massey Totals 151.3 (-25.3)
Bradley-Terry 50%
Weighted B-T 53%
Efficiency Plus ML SDSU -0.5 (+1.5) 147.3 (-21.3) 52%
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -0.3 (+2.3) 147.9 (-21.9) 50%
Baseline ML UNM -0.1 (+2.1) 149.2 (-23.2) 45%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -0.5 (+1.5) 148.9 (-22.9) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2026 UNM 8176 SDSU
Jan 18, 2026 SDSU 8379 UNM
Feb 26, 2025 SDSU 7365 UNM
Jan 11, 2025 UNM 6248 SDSU
Mar 16, 2024 UNM 6861 SDSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU UNM
Overall 22-11 26-11
Conference 14-6 13-7
Home 14-2 17-3
Away 5-5 7-5
Neutral 3-4 2-3
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.8 80.8
Avg Pts Against 71.3 71.6
Massey 11.4 (#50) 11.6 (#49)
Bradley-Terry 1.83 (#53) 1.83 (#54)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.44 (#52) 2.34 (#55)
RPI 0.577 (#41) 0.572 (#50)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU UNM
FG% 47.2% 46.5%
3PT% 35.0% 36.2%
REB / G 34.3 35.7
OREB / G 9.6 10.3
AST / TO 1.22 1.36
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.1% 54.1%
TOV% 17.0% 15.3%
ORB% 29.4% 29.9%
FT Rate 28.5% 26.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.4% 49.8%
Opp TOV% 20.7% 19.1%
DRB% 69.2% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 29.0% 25.8%

Game Analysis

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