Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -3600 ULM +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -20.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -16.2 (-1.2) | 154.1 (-9.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -17.0 (-2.0) | 157.1 (-12.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -16.1 (-1.1) | 155.8 (-10.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -16.5 (-1.5) | 154.7 (-9.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | TROY 77 – 76 ULM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TROY 87 – 50 ULM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | TROY 77 – 58 ULM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TROY 84 – 78 ULM |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TROY 85 – 57 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-3 | 3-10 |
| Away | 9-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 85.4 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#151) | -16.3 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#118) | -3.44 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#155) | -4.20 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#77) | 0.370 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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