Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +1300 TROY -2800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +1 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -14.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -12.7 (+11.7) | 152.7 (+0.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -13.0 (+12.0) | 159.4 (-6.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -12.4 (+11.4) | 156.1 (-3.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -12.0 (+11.0) | 154.0 (-1.0) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TROY 80 – 65 ULM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TROY 87 – 50 ULM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | TROY 77 – 58 ULM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TROY 84 – 78 ULM |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TROY 85 – 57 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 12-6 |
| Home | 3-10 | 10-3 |
| Away | 1-15 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -16.3 (#354) | 1.4 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.45 (#361) | 0.51 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.21 (#362) | 0.21 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#358) | 0.552 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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