Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -3000 ULM +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +37 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -17.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -13.7 (+23.3) | 133.6 (+3.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -14.9 (+22.1) | 136.0 (+1.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -13.8 (+23.2) | 133.8 (+3.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -14.5 (+22.5) | 133.5 (+3.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TROY 80 – 65 ULM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | TROY 77 – 76 ULM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | TROY 77 – 58 ULM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TROY 84 – 78 ULM |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TROY 85 – 57 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-11 |
| Away | 9-6 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#113) | -11.3 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#138) | -2.44 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#116) | -2.94 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#121) | 0.373 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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