Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -800 ULM +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +28 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -12.6 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -10.3 (+17.7) | 145.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -11.8 (+16.2) | 147.4 (-5.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -10.7 (+17.3) | 147.7 (-5.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -10.7 (+17.3) | 146.5 (-4.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TROY 80 – 65 ULM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | TROY 77 – 76 ULM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TROY 87 – 50 ULM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | TROY 77 – 58 ULM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TROY 84 – 78 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#137) | -7.5 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#162) | -1.03 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#145) | -1.26 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#140) | 0.457 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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