Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +1000 TROY -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +19 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -12.2 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -11.2 (-7.8) | 135.1 (-0.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TROY -11.8 (-7.2) | 135.7 (-0.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TROY -11.5 (-7.5) | 136.5 (-1.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -11.2 (-7.8) | 136.7 (-1.7) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TROY 80 – 65 ULM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | TROY 77 – 76 ULM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TROY 87 – 50 ULM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TROY 84 – 78 ULM |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TROY 85 – 57 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-11 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#347) | 2.9 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#357) | 0.29 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.09 (#358) | 0.45 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.333 (#363) | 0.527 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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