Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +300 TROY -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +6 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -6.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -4.6 (-1.4) | 144.3 (+17.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -6.7 (+0.7) | 144.6 (+17.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -5.3 (-0.7) | 145.7 (+16.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.1 (-0.9) | 145.4 (+16.6) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TROY 80 – 65 ULM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | TROY 77 – 76 ULM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TROY 87 – 50 ULM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | TROY 77 – 58 ULM |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TROY 85 – 57 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#290) | 2.3 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#261) | 0.12 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#260) | 0.34 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#248) | 0.516 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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