Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Atlantic 10 Conference · Charles E. Smith Center · February 28, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread GW -2.5 Away covered
O/U 152.5 Under
Money GW -155 / DAY +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total GW win
Actual DAY +2 134 Lost
Massey GW -5.1 (-7.1)
Massey Totals 157.0 (-23.0)
Bradley-Terry 38%
Weighted B-T 36%
Efficiency Plus ML GW -4.7 (-6.7) 151.6 (-17.6) 69%
Baseline Tuned ML GW -4.8 (-6.8) 151.4 (-17.4) 69%
Baseline ML GW -4.7 (-6.7) 151.7 (-17.7) 69%
Baseline Plus ML GW -4.4 (-6.4) 153.3 (-19.3) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 7, 2026 DAY 7972 GW
Jan 4, 2025 GW 8262 DAY
Jan 31, 2024 DAY 8361 GW
Jan 21, 2023 GW 7669 DAY
Feb 12, 2022 DAY 8054 GW

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GW DAY
Overall 19-16 25-12
Conference 8-10 12-6
Home 12-4 14-4
Away 4-8 8-5
Neutral 3-4 3-3
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.9 74.1
Avg Pts Against 75.2 69.3
Massey 9.2 (#65) 7.1 (#84)
Bradley-Terry 0.41 (#126) 1.40 (#70)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.76 (#108) 1.91 (#65)
RPI 0.539 (#91) 0.573 (#56)
Shooting & Four Factors GW DAY
FG% 47.3% 45.1%
3PT% 35.8% 33.9%
REB / G 37.1 32.9
OREB / G 12.4 9.0
AST / TO 1.26 1.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.7% 52.0%
TOV% 17.6% 17.1%
ORB% 36.2% 27.4%
FT Rate 25.9% 36.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.1% 51.0%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 21.9%
DRB% 71.1% 69.8%
Opp FT Rate 24.6% 25.1%

Game Analysis

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