Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | GW -155 DAY +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -5.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -4.4 (-6.4) | 153.3 (-19.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -4.7 (-6.7) | 151.6 (-17.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -4.8 (-6.8) | 151.4 (-17.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GW -4.7 (-6.7) | 151.7 (-17.7) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | DAY 79 – 72 GW |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GW 82 – 62 DAY |
| Jan 31, 2024 | DAY 83 – 61 GW |
| Jan 21, 2023 | GW 76 – 69 DAY |
| Feb 12, 2022 | DAY 80 – 54 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#65) | 7.1 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#126) | 1.40 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#108) | 1.91 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#91) | 0.573 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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