Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -142 GW +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | GW -0.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -2.1 (+4.9) | 149.4 (+1.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -1.3 (+5.7) | 147.9 (+3.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -1.9 (+5.1) | 148.3 (+2.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -2.1 (+4.9) | 149.6 (+1.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | DAY 68 – 66 GW |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GW 82 – 62 DAY |
| Jan 31, 2024 | DAY 83 – 61 GW |
| Jan 21, 2023 | GW 76 – 69 DAY |
| Feb 12, 2022 | DAY 80 – 54 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#95) | 10.5 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#99) | 1.17 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#101) | 1.70 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#93) | 0.552 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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