Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | GW +360 DAY -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -6.7 (+26.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -4.9 (+24.9) | 140.3 (+3.7) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -5.2 (+25.2) | 140.5 (+3.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -4.7 (+24.7) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.1 (+25.1) | 141.1 (+2.9) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | DAY 68 – 66 GW |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DAY 79 – 72 GW |
| Jan 31, 2024 | DAY 83 – 61 GW |
| Jan 21, 2023 | GW 76 – 69 DAY |
| Feb 12, 2022 | DAY 80 – 54 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 16-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#151) | 11.2 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#152) | 2.49 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#150) | 3.94 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#190) | 0.603 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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