Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | GW +333 DAY -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -5.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -5.2 (+12.2) | 134.4 (+10.6) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -5.1 (+12.1) | 134.8 (+10.2) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -5.1 (+12.1) | 137.3 (+7.7) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -4.7 (+11.7) | 137.5 (+7.5) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | DAY 68 – 66 GW |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DAY 79 – 72 GW |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GW 82 – 62 DAY |
| Jan 31, 2024 | DAY 83 – 61 GW |
| Feb 12, 2022 | DAY 80 – 54 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 61.0 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#192) | 8.3 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#208) | 1.05 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#203) | 1.70 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#225) | 0.555 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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