Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | DAY -1700 GW +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +26 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -16.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -14.0 (+12.0) | 133.3 (+0.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -15.9 (+10.1) | 133.0 (+1.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -12.3 (+13.7) | 132.1 (+1.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -14.1 (+11.9) | 132.8 (+1.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | DAY 68 – 66 GW |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DAY 79 – 72 GW |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GW 82 – 62 DAY |
| Jan 31, 2024 | DAY 83 – 61 GW |
| Jan 21, 2023 | GW 76 – 69 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#57) | -4.4 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#87) | -0.48 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#78) | -0.75 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#85) | 0.480 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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