Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -455 UNCG +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -9.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -9.2 (-0.2) | 155.7 (+9.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.5 (+0.5) | 155.2 (+9.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -8.6 (+0.4) | 153.5 (+11.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -7.7 (+1.3) | 155.5 (+9.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
| Jan 12, 2024 | SAM 79 – 70 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#214) | -9.5 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#218) | -1.18 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#217) | -1.64 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#180) | 0.459 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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