Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -120 SAM +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +8 | 208 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -0.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+63.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.8 (+7.2) | 142.2 (+65.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -0.4 (+7.6) | 145.6 (+62.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -0.6 (+7.4) | 143.9 (+64.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.7 (+7.3) | 143.7 (+64.3) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
| Jan 12, 2024 | SAM 79 – 70 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#139) | 3.9 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#155) | 0.80 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#158) | 0.75 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#132) | 0.553 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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