Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -200 UNCG +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -9.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.1 (+0.9) | 150.1 (-1.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -9.1 (-0.1) | 149.3 (-0.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -8.8 (+0.2) | 148.7 (+0.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -8.1 (+0.9) | 149.8 (-0.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 18-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#86) | 0.8 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#62) | 0.93 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#69) | 1.16 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#84) | 0.555 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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