Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG +120 SAM -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +7 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -0.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.4 (+7.4) | 147.5 (+23.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -0.2 (+6.8) | 147.1 (+23.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -0.1 (+6.9) | 143.8 (+27.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.3 (+7.3) | 144.9 (+26.1) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
| Jan 12, 2024 | SAM 79 – 70 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#301) | -5.3 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#311) | -0.29 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#309) | -0.68 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#315) | 0.477 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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