Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -270 UNCG +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -5.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.5 (+1.5) | 149.1 (-4.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -5.9 (+1.1) | 148.2 (-3.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.6 (+1.4) | 149.1 (-4.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.4 (+1.6) | 149.7 (-4.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
| Jan 12, 2024 | SAM 79 – 70 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#99) | 2.9 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#74) | 0.62 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#80) | 0.58 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#117) | 0.550 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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