Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -115 SAM -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -1.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -0.1 (-9.1) | 154.1 (-7.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -0.6 (-8.4) | 154.0 (-7.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.6 (-8.4) | 156.7 (-9.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.0 (-9.0) | 155.6 (-8.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Jan 12, 2024 | SAM 79 – 70 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 18-0 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 84.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#138) | 7.1 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#91) | 2.09 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#101) | 2.19 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#87) | 0.589 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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