I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
Big Sky Conference · ICCU Arena · February 28, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread IDHO -2.5 Away covered
O/U 156.5 Under
Money IDHO -135 / UNCO +114
Model Predictions
Spread Total IDHO win
Actual UNCO +9 143 Lost
Massey IDHO -2.8 (-11.8) — —
Massey Totals — 156.6 (-13.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 56% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 57% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML IDHO -2.6 (-11.6) 149.8 (-6.8) 64% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ IDHO -1.2 (-10.2) 149.8 (-6.8) 59% ✗
Baseline Plus ML IDHO -3.0 (-12.0) 152.9 (-9.9) 66% ✗
Baseline ML IDHO -2.3 (-11.3) 152.1 (-9.1) 60% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 30, 2026 UNCO 91 – 83 IDHO
Feb 23, 2025 UNCO 92 – 74 IDHO
Jan 24, 2025 IDHO 77 – 76 UNCO
Feb 23, 2024 UNCO 76 – 62 IDHO
Jan 27, 2024 UNCO 89 – 68 IDHO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings IDHO UNCO
Overall 21-15 20-12
Conference 9-9 10-8
Home 9-4 11-3
Away 7-9 8-7
Neutral 5-2 1-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.8 80.8
Avg Pts Against 74.1 78.1
Massey 0.3 (#161) 0.5 (#157)
Bradley-Terry -0.35 (#211) -0.10 (#174)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.32 (#191) -0.01 (#166)
RPI 0.481 (#228) 0.496 (#196)
Shooting & Four Factors IDHO UNCO
FG% 43.9% 48.7%
3PT% 35.7% 34.7%
REB / G 35.7 35.8
OREB / G 10.1 9.1
AST / TO 1.10 1.41
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.5% 55.9%
TOV% 15.7% 16.1%
ORB% 28.4% 27.9%
FT Rate 25.2% 20.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.1% 50.5%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 12.3%
DRB% 74.9% 75.8%
Opp FT Rate 29.7% 30.4%

Game Analysis

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